- Trump's policies may restrict tech industry access to skilled immigrant workers.
- The H-1B visa program is crucial for tech, with 65% issued to workers in computer-related roles.
- Elon Musk and JD Vance could influence Trump's stance on high-skilled immigration.
Many in the tech industry are concerned that President Donald Trump will make it harder to hire immigrants, sapping an important source of technical talent for the sector.
"If the backlash against immigrants impacts the flow of really talented people into the country, that's probably not good for us overall," said Michael Greeley, a general partner at Flare Capital Partners, a healthcare technology investor.
Trump's election win could lead to mass deportations of unauthorized immigrants. Trump's campaign has also promised to complete the southern border wall and revive the "famous travel ban," which restricted people from countries that were predominantly Muslim to enter the US. This order left many tech workers stranded outside the US in 2017.
What's less understood is how the president-elect will shape a legal immigration system that pipes high-skilled workers from outside the US into coveted tech jobs.
It's difficult to estimate the number of immigrants legally working in the tech sector because there are several types of visas available to them. The H-1B visa program is the nation's largest temporary work visa program, with over 600,000 workers across 50,000 employers. Last year, 65% of approved visas went to workers in computer-related roles, according to data from the US Citizenship and Immigration Services.
The tech industry should get more clarity in the new year on H-1Bs, Hiba Mona Anver, a Silicon Valley-based immigration attorney who works with tech startups, said. In the meantime, she and other attorneys say they're getting on the phone with clients.
"I wouldn't go as far as to say that I'm sensing anxiety per se," Anver said, but there is "a sense of the need to prepare."
"Trump doesn't have a great track record of supporting the visas that are critical to startup founders and early employees who want to build companies in the US," said Jenny Fielding, a cofounder and managing partner of Everywhere Ventures, a global investment firm.
In his first term, Trump fashioned himself as the "Buy American, Hire American" president. He signed an executive order suspending some temporary work visas, like the H-1B for skilled workers, a move that hit tech hardest. His administration oversaw an increase in visa-application denial rates and more requests for further proof of workers' eligibility.
"From 2016 to 2020, the average denial rate for H-1B visas was over 17%, compared to just 3.2% under President Biden," Sophie Alcorn, a Palo Alto-based immigration attorney, said.
With stricter immigration laws, the tech industry could face a worker shortage like the one seen during the pandemic. Experts told Business Insider the sector is already understaffed, and recruiting workers with AI skills is particularly competitive.
Anna Rathbun, the chief investment officer of CBIZ, a Cleveland-based financial advisory, previously told Business Insider, "You shouldn't ban exports on chips and then completely export the talented labor. That makes no sense."
Aaron Levie, the chief executive of Box and one of Silicon Valley's senior statesmen, offered hope that Trump's ally Elon Musk could bring a fresh approach to the issue.
"Our high skilled immigration system is frozen in time and not responsive to the market," Levie posted on the social-media site X. "We have far more demand for the top talent to work for and start companies here than we let in. It's a bipartisan issue that politicians don't touch. Someone like Elon finally could do it."
Musk, a Trump supporter who may be considered for a role in the administration, replied, "I agree."
The AI skills gap is so severe that tech firms are scouring university programs, enticing students with six-figure salaries and resources far beyond what academia can offer.
In podcast interviews over the years, Trump has also discussed the importance of attracting the best and brightest. He even suggested during an appearance on the tech-favorite podcast "All-In" in June that non-US students who graduate from US colleges should get green cards.
There could be reasons for optimism for the tech industry given newer figures in Trump's orbit, Alcorn said. Vice President-elect JD Vance has a background in venture capital, and Musk himself is an immigrant who's said he worked in the US on an H-1B visa.
Chris Farmer, the founder of SignalFire, an early-stage investor, said tech elites like Vance and Musk will have Trump's ear on setting a new standard for high-skilled immigration.
The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.
One visa holder told Business Insider she expects H-1Bs will become more difficult to obtain under Trump.
Shin Yi Chong, who received her H-1B visa in 2019, was recently laid off from her tech job as a product manager. After living in the US for roughly a decade, she said she now has weeks to find a new job or face deportation.
"Just seeing historical data from what happened when Trump was in office the last time," she said, "I don't foresee it changing in a positive direction."
Shubhangi Goel and Riddhi Kanetkar contributed reporting.